Generally depressed economic conditions brought on by the public health crisis, mean that the impact of the low season on the property sector is more pronounced than usual. Rumah.com Indonesia Property Market Index data for the fourth quarter of 2020 shows a decline in property prices, an increase in supply, and a decline in national demand.
Even so, property trends in a number of popular geographic locales are still in good shape. Prices in West Java and Banten are trending upward, especially in Depok, Bekasi, Cikarang and Tangerang. The ongoing high volume of online property searches is another factor contributing to optimism surrounding the property market in 2021.
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Get The Guru View: key findings of the RIPMI Q1 2021
Price index overview
The chart shows that for the fourth quarter of 2020 the index rests at 110.7, or a drop of 0.5% compared to Q3 2020. Year-on-year the drop is even more marked, at 1.3%. Meanwhile, the price decline has affected apartments the most.
Drilling down, for landed houses the index number was 115.6 for the final quarter of the year, or a drop of 0.4% compared to the previous quarter. However, year-on-year prices were up by 0.3%.
For apartments, quarter-on-quarter, the corresponding index figure for the fourth quarter of 2020 was 112.5, down by 0.3% from the previous quarter and by 2.5% year-on-year.
Some regions contributed to the drop more than others. The figure below shows national price trends for Jakarta and six other major markets, taking into account landed houses as well as apartments and condominiums.
For Jakarta and East Java the correction between third and fourth quarter of is not as pronounced as for DI Yogyakarta.
Finer grain price index data shows that for the most recent period, QoQQ, Jakarta was down by 1.19%, while for Jogjakarta and East Java the figure was 1.96% and 1.47%, respectively.
Prices will recover. That’s one optimistic inference that may be drawn from the Rumah.com analysis of property prices as at year end, according to Marine Novita, Country Manager, Rumah.com.
To illustrate, Marine pointed to three provinces where prices rose at the end of the year: Banten, West Java, and Bali as price. For the last quarter of 2020, the Rumah.com price index in Banten, was up by 1.1%, QoQ. The uptick was even more noticeable in West Java, with 1.8%, and Bali, with 1.6%.
Supply index overview
The supply component of the Rumah.com Indonesia Property Market Supply Index (RIPMI Supply Index) indexes the number of residential listings posted on Rumah.com as well as Rumah.com listing market share to reflect the actual supply in the market.
As seen in the graph above, there was a notable upturn in property supply during the fourth quarter of 2020.
During the last two quarters of the year, property supply increased by an average of 37% per quarter. This is significantly higher than the 11.2% per-quarter rate of growth which has been the average over the past five-year period.
The graph shows that DKI Jakarta contributes the most, with 32% of the total national supply. Meanwhile, West Java contributed 30%, followed by Banten (17%), and East Java (12%).
The graph reflects change in amount of property supply per region, with West Java up the most, 19.5%, quarter-on-quarter, followed by Banten (13%) and DKI Jakarta at 12.9%. East Java, meanwhile, was up by 9%.
Satellite cities recover, West Java sees correction
The RIPMI Price Index, which tracks price, was lower for the fourth quarter of 2020 than for the previous quarter. This is in keeping with the normal property cycle. As per the figure below, several key provinces such as Banten and West Java continued to show increases, up 1.1% and 1.8% respectively.
Three areas with significant price gains
There are three regions in Jabodetabek that are quite resistant to the impact of the low season. This significant growth was mainly due to rising prices for landed housing types.
Depok, Bekasi Regency and Tangerang City managed to escape the low season effect. For Depok, the price index was up 7.5% (QoQ). This affected both apartments and houses. Bekasi Regency, where prices were up 6.5% for the quarter, followed closely behind. Meanwhile, Tangerang City was up by 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2020, compared to the previous quarter.
Slight price drop for most parts of DKI Jakarta and Tangerang
Across DKI Jakarta, prices fell by an average of 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2020, according to Property Market Index data. The region with the largest price decline was Central Jakarta, which fell by 2.2%, quarter on quarter. Meanwhile, North Jakarta fell by 16%. The decline in prices in those two zones of the capital city affected both houses and apartments.
A significant portion of Central Jakarta and North Jakarta properties on the market are in the high range, with average occupancy prices of over IDR 4 billion. The decline in prices in these two regions is judged to be reasonable because demand at the high end is currently low.
"The decline in property prices in North Jakarta and Central Jakarta is because they are already high, mostly in the middle and upper-middle price range. Based on data from Rumah.com, there is a lot of demand for residential properties in the range of IDR 300 million to IDR 1.5 billion," Marine explained.
Meanwhile, prices in Tangerang Regency decreased for the first time in 2020, during the last quarter of the year. Prices were down by 2.1% in the popular region. Considered a “sunrise” area, hence expected “to shine” in the near future.
Yet, the decline in property prices in Tangerang Regency, according to Marine, is still within reasonable limits. "In Tangerang Regency you see prices go up every quarter. This time around you may be seeing developers and those who are supplying properties making minor adjustments to make sure buyers stay interested. But if you look at Tangerang Regency, year on year, despite being low season, prices are still up by two percent," she said.
Supply surges at year end in Jabodetabek
For Bekasi during the fourth quarter of 2020, the Rumah.com supply index (RIPMI Supply Index) was at 183.8, up 25.2% from the previous quarter, taking into account both apartments and landed houses. Taking into consideration houses alone, the supply index was 173.3, or up 25.7% quarter on quarter. By contrast, supply of apartments was up by only 10.2, with an index number of 85.8.
For South Tangerang City, the RIPMI Supply Index stood 113.7, or an increase of 16.3% quarter-on-quarter. A similar increase applied to Tangerang City, with an index score of 157.6, up by 16.7%. Meanwhile, Tangerang Regency was at 227.3, or in other words a quarterly increase of 12.1%.
According to the Marine Novita, Country Manager, Rumah.com, the increase in property supply in the Jakarta satellite area is an indication that developers are focusing on residential projects for middle and upper-middle buyers and located in alternative areas with more affordable prices.
"Property prices in Tangerang Regency are currently in the range of IDR 7.4 million per square meter, even cheaper than Bekasi City which is around IDR 8.7 million. And this is certainly much lower than average prices in DKI Jakarta, where you’d expect to pay something in the range IDR 22 million per meter. Starting with Tangerang City, you now see all of Tangerang Regency with rapid development that’s enabled by great transportation infrastructure which makes access so much easier," she said.
Demand: Search activity down at year-end
The search trend data organized below shows that property searches on Rumah.com in the fourth quarter of 2020 fell by 14% compared to the previous quarter. On an annual basis, however, search volumes showed a two-fold increase from the year before.
The slowdown in property search in areas in Jabodetabek is closely related to the annual property cycle. As the year ends, property buyers are more likely to be on vacation or making other purchases and less likely to be hunting for property. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic has not shown any signs of ending, another reason why people may be holding back from bigger expenses.
The impact of COVID-19 can also be seen in a recent Rumah.com survey. The figures below reflect analysis of the CSS H1 2021, a consumer sentiment study based on feedback from 1078 respondents.
Roughly half of all respondents said they’d delayed property purchases because of the pandemic. One factor, reflected by the survey was the matter of not being able to see advertised properties simply because of public health restrictions discouraging travel. Survey respondents also said they’d avoid “red” zones, or areas with unusually high COVID-19 cases.
In terms of budgets, the graphic below shows that 66% of the respondents indicated that they intended to spend less than IDR 500 million to buy property. This data is in line with property supply trends, which indicate that the current popularity suburban areas near large cities, where land can still be obtained at an affordable price.
Meanwhile, just under 60% of respondents said proximity to public transportation such as terminals, stops and stations was their primary concern in buying property. Meanwhile, as many as 77% of respondents said they were content to purchase a property where facilities such as jogging tracks or parks were at a minimum, as long as the price was cheaper..
Area in spotlight: real estate in Tangerang Regency and Cikarang Raya climbing
Two areas in particular stand out as strategic places to look for a home, based on analysis of the Rumah data from the fourth quarter of 2020: Tangerang, in Banten Province, just to the west of Jakarta; and Cikarang, a satellite city lying just east of Jakarta and located in West Java province.
These two districts currently have a lot to offer to homebuyers. The first factor is infrastructure and transportation, both public and private. These areas are quickly developing a robust network of roads and other transportation corridors. Property buyers who drive will be looking for – and generally able to find -- homes located near an onramp offering access to an expressway. Those who take the train or bus will be looking for stops and stations nearby.
Take Tangerang District, the seat of Tangerang City, with two train stations and easy access the airport. Train commuters can easily get to West Jakarta via Tangerang and Tanah Tinggi stations, or else drive there via the Outer Ring Road. Meanwhile, from Tangerang, the Sukarno Hatta international airport is roughly just 15 km away, compared to roughly 30 km away for Central Jakarta. Lippo Mall and Tang City are just two of five major malls there.
“I don’t miss Jakarta at all,” said an American expatriate worker who recently purchased a house in Tangerang City together with his Indonesian wife. They have everything in Tangerang and it’s a lot better organized. “It’s really easy to get around. There are really a lot of malls, schools, pretty much everything.”
Meanwhile, Cikarang, which is generally regarded as an industrial area, is an independent urban residential area linked to adjacent urban centers via the Jakarta - Cikampek Toll Road, an elevated toll road, Manggarai-Cikarang double-double track (DDT) railway and a light rapid transit (LRT) line.
Cikarang has several noted schools such as President University educational facilities in Cikarang are also complete and of high quality, such as the President School and Pelita Harapan School. There are also several international class hospitals. Lippo Cikarang Mall and Mayfair Plaza Indonesia are judged nearly as splendid as top shopping centers in Jakarta. So don't be surprised if Cikarang ends up becoming a sunrise property area.
Macroeconomic trends: Bank worked to push mortgage rates down
Home mortgage interest rate (KPR) lower, in line with BI rates
As shown in November 2020, Bank Indonesia (BI) lowered the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate (BI7DRR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3,75%, keeping it there for December 2020, as well. Year on year, the repo rate is down by 125 bps. The lower rate translates into lower interest rates for the homebuyer credit facility (KPR) and the equivalent facility for apartments (KPA). On a quarterly basis, the two rates decreased by three and two bps, respectively, to converge at 8,32%.
Other recent Bank Indonesia policies and initiatives with impact on the national property market include accommodative macroprudential policies aimed to boost credit and financing on behalf of priority sectors of the economy, in the context of national economic recovery. BI has also undertaken to work closely with OJK to promote interest rate transparency and encourage lower rates through supervision and communication.
"In fact, the KPR and KPA interest rates haven’t come down as far as the BI7DRR. However, we’ve seen how the Bank worked to push mortgage rates down by15 bps from July to October, at which time the BI7DRR was stagnant at 4%. We hope that the bank will continue to make these type of adjustments because it makes it easier for people to own a house, especially in a pandemic situation like this," said Marine.
The government started a national vaccination program on January 13, 2021 in order to mitigate the coronavirus pandemic. President Joko Widodo was the first person to be jabbed with CoronoVac, produced by Sinovac. The mass vaccination program was facilitated by the approval on the part of the Food and Drug Supervisory Agency (BPOM) of an emergency authorization request (EUA) for the recently developed drug.
Over an estimated 15 months, from January 2021 to March 2022, some 181.5 million doses are to be distributed and administered, free of cost, across Indonesia’s 34 provinces. Unlike most other countries, the government will prioritize working-age individuals to get vaccinated first.
The low season, marked usually by the last quarter of the year, was a little lower than normal because of the impact of the pandemic on the general economy. Rumah.com Indonesia Property Market Index data for the fourth quarter of 2020 shows a decline in property prices, an increase in supply, and a decline in national demand.
However, certain areas of Greater Jakarta, the data reflect several positive property market trends. Prices are buoyant in parts of the two provinces that neighbour Jakarta, West Java and Banten. People are keener than elsewhere, the data suggest, about buying and selling apartments and houses in Depok, Bekasi and Cikarang (all in West Java); and Tangerang (Banten). Another important gauge of sentiment that is grounds for optimism, is the current high volume of property searches being conducted online in 2021.
Meanwhile, it’s important to notice how the property market is being shaped by the continued robust rollout of roads and public transportation infrastructure. Toll roads, other roads, conventional train lines, and new assets such as light rail are key to understanding the ambitions and concerns of property seekers. There is no doubt about the way that aggressive infrastructure development has boosted property values in areas such as Cikarang and Depok.
In view of the data and analysis presented here, Rumah.com predicts that established market patterns will prevail during the first quarter of 2021, meaning that developers will again raise prices, meaning that prices should be going up, at least by reference to the previous quarter. This is without denying that the economy has experienced a serious disruption due to the health crisis.
Falling property prices and increasing property supply indicate that the property market is still in buyer's-market condition. For property buyers who are financially prepared, this is the best time to buy property. Consumers will be spoiled by the abundance of property choices at competitive prices.
For property developers, large urban buffer areas blessed with public transportation infrastructure and toll roads will still be the way to attract homebuyers.